Buyer sentiment continues to be influenced by the combination of local area market conditions and the overall macroeconomic environment. The media last week was once again full of conflicting information regarding the state of the property market, with some reports suggesting conditions have stabilised while others indicating there is more trouble brewing.
Early in the week, ANZ released a report predicting Australian house prices should rise by around 4-5% per annum over the next two to three years, as long as the global economy avoids calamity and local unemployment doesn’t rise. According to the lender, home sales numbers are currently running at 100,000 per month, significantly lower than the 140,000 recorded pre-GFC and the 120,000 recorded in 2009. The report also notes significant volatility in the market over recent years, with house price falls for the most expensive 20% of Australian suburbs more than double the price falls for the remaining 80% of suburbs.
Conversely, the NAB Australian Residential Property Survey also released last week showed the national outlook has declined, with Australian house prices declining by 2% in the June quarter. According to the 300 real estate professionals surveyed, prices in NSW and Victoria are expected to fall by .4% and .7% respectively over the next two years, while house prices nationally are likely to rise by just 1% during the same period.
An article in the Age featured data from the Real Estate Institute of Victoria (REIV) showing the median price in Melbourne has fallen by 5.3% over the past year to $535,000. A spokesperson said low consumer confidence is the biggest challenge in the residential property market.
A Sydney Morning Herald article said investors are fleeing the share market for the safety of bricks and mortar. Meanwhile, a separate Sun Herald article said three in ten households with a home loan are currently suffering from mortgage stress, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures
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