Consumer sentiment continues to be heavily influenced by both the macro-economic environment and local area market conditions. An official rate cut became virtually a certainty when lower than expected inflation figures were released last week. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported inflation was just 0.1% for the first three months of this year, following no change in the December quarter and taking annual core inflation to just over 2%.
A news.com.au article said the inflation result caused a fall in the Australian dollar which may help local industries competing in international markets. In a bonus for property owners, the low result increased the likelihood that the Reserve Bank would cut rates by at least .25% on Tuesday. A Sydney Morning Herald article said the result now means Australians can expect a series of rate cuts. Stephen Koukoulas, as economic consultant who until recently was an advisor to the Prime Minister said the RBA got it wrong by underestimating how weak retailing and construction really were and should have cut rates in February and April.
Unfortunately, there is no guarantee the banks will pass on all or any of any official cut. News Corporation reported Westpac boss Gail Kelly has refused to speculate on whether the lender would pass on any cut, echoing other bank executives in saying wholesale funding costs are now higher than they were throughout the global financial crisis. However, the associated article said the major four banks source only around 20% of their total funding from off-shore markets, down from 40% three years ago.
In the property market, a Herald article said sellers and agents are hopeful that talk of an interest rate cut will bring out more buyers after a patchy few months with fewer transactions. Australian Property Monitors said they expect final sales figures to show a drop of 8% for the first quarter compared to the same period last year.
The latest finalised auction results showed a slight rise in the overall clearance rate, with Sydney at 54%, Melbourne at 58%, Brisbane at 30% and Adelaide at 39%. Volumes in other capital cities were too low to yield meaningful volumes.